What flows in and out?
Usable energy, conversion losses, waste heat and available work. Include the entire system and state its operating conditions.
Explore the assumptions
Inspect the proposed connections, follow costs across the system, and test how demand can offset efficiency.
The proposed model
This proposed model has not been tested. Choose a factor to inspect the assumptions behind its connections.
Choose a factor
Each factor has a list of proposed connections. On wider screens, lines show those connections; their width and position do not indicate strength or importance.
@@NODE_QUESTION@@
The model guide explains its scope and limits. No causal ranking has been established.
Follow the whole system
Check where the costs and harms go, too. Energy losses, pollution, expense and risk need separate measures.
Include the full life cycle: extraction, manufacturing, delivery, use, maintenance and end of life.
Usable energy, conversion losses, waste heat and available work. Include the entire system and state its operating conditions.
Extraction, water, land, emissions, toxicity and replacement needs. Report the absolute totals as well as each unit of service.
Affordability, safety, access, reliability, supply dependence and construction time. Name affected groups and missing evidence.
Choose relevant objectives and hard constraints for a specific service. Keep tradeoffs visible; no automatic combined score. Missing measurements are unknown.
Pareto frontier: options for which no feasible comparator is at least as good on every chosen objective and better on one. This only works with comparable boundaries and sufficiently resolved uncertainty. It does not automatically select a preferred option.
Read the comparison methodTwo possible feedback loops
An efficiency gain can support more research. It can also encourage more use. Both effects need to be measured.
Assume every task meets the same quality standard. Adjust the inputs to compare energy use before and after the change.
100%
The saving is exactly offset by task growth.
100% means no change. Below 100% means less energy.
0.80 × 1.25 = 1.00
A 25% increase in tasks erases a 20% saving per task.
New energy ÷ baseline energy = (1 − saving per task) × (1 + task growth). It excludes manufacturing, hardware replacement, cooling changes, prices and other sectors. It does not estimate how demand responds to price or establish a lifecycle benefit.
Rebound: extra use caused by an efficiency-related change. Jevons-type backfire: induced use more than offsets savings. Task growth from unrelated causes is not automatically rebound. The benefit loop also requires useful, reproducible discoveries; more compute does not guarantee them.
The research process
Investigate independently before sharing conclusions. Then compare evidence and agree on the next useful test. Keep unresolved disagreements visible.
Start with several possible problem framings. Seek the cheapest test that could rule one out. Different AI roles do not, by themselves, create independent evidence.
Freeze the initial question and record each participant's sources, model or expertise, conflicts and exposure to earlier conclusions. Compare independent evidence summaries before sharing conclusions. Preserve dissent and source overlap. This static repository cannot enforce blind review or run a multi-AI system.
Humans are first-class researchers in every role. Hazardous physical work must remain theoretical until qualified professionals complete the appropriate review and authorize its scope.
Read the research protocol · Read the safety boundaryNone recorded yet. That means no project hypothesis has been falsified—not that any has survived a test.
Falsified-hypothesis index (JSON)No completed project study or independent replication is recorded. Background sources explain terms; they do not validate the challenge.
Research index (JSON)Unresolved: the evidence cannot yet settle the bounded claim.
Plausible — experiment required: supporting evidence exists, but the needed test has not resolved the claim.
Falsified: evidence contradicts the registered claim within its stated scope.
Supported within tested conditions: documented independent replication supports the claim within named conditions.
Hypotheses, assumptions, simulations and experimental results are recorded separately. Confidence has a dated rationale; it is never a truth meter.